Browns vs. Ravens – Week 16
After three weeks on the road – and coming off back-to-back losses that have sucked some of the positive energy out of an otherwise encouraging season – the Browns finally have come back to Cleveland.
The Browns close out the 2010 season with consecutive home games, starting today against Baltimore.
The Opposition
Baltimore: 10-4
Offensive rank: 19th overall/16th passing/16th rushing
Defensive rank: 10th overall/14th passing/5th rushing
All-time record: Browns trail 7-16, with a 3-9 mark at home. The Browns have lost three of the last four at home against Baltimore.
The line: Browns +4
What to Watch For
How the Browns defense handles the Ravens passing game. In the first meeting Anquan Bolden torched the secondary, pulling in eight catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns. This match-up will be a good opportunity to see the progress rookies Joe Haden and T.J. Ward have made in the passing game.
While the Baltimore defense gets all the national hype, if you look closer at some key numbers the Browns aren’t that much behind the Ravens:
- The teams are tied for 14th against the pass
- The Ravens are giving up 4.0 yards per rush; the Browns 4.1
- The Ravens have given up 20 touchdown passes; the Browns 21
- The Ravens are giving up 18 points per game; the Browns 19
- The teams are tied, with Pittsburgh, for fewest rushing touchdowns allowed, with five.
So while the new penny shine has reportedly come off defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, he still has the defense playing pretty well.
But that last stat shows just how hard it is going to be for the Browns to compete as they are in a division with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They don’t get the cupcakes in the AFC West and NFC West every year.
Offensively, we know what the Browns are going to try and do: run the ball with Peyton Hillis and let Colt McCoy make a few plays to keep drives going and hope for the best.
After ripping the Ravens for 144 yards in the first meeting, Hillis will be a marked man today. And we have to wonder just how much he has left after 14 games, considering he has accounted for:
- 68 percent of the Browns rushing attempts
- 75 percent of the Browns rushing yards
- 22 percent of the Browns receptions
- 17 percent of the Browns receiving yards
- 37 percent of the Browns total offensive output
If you look at his last four games, Hillis may be ready for a solid day today. He’s been up-and-down the last few weeks, alternating good games (131 vs. Carolina, 108 vs. Buffalo) with weaker games (57 vs. Miami, 59 vs. Cincinnati) so if that trend continues he should break the 100-yard mark today. Which would certainly help the Browns efforts to pull out a win.
The Browns will have little chance if they can’t get their problems on third down fixed. Over the past three games the offense is only 6-of-32 on third down, a shockingly bad 18 percent conversion rate. Clearly that’s not going to get it done today against Baltimore.
The Best Browns vs. Ravens Game I’ve Seen
Nothing really stands out from the 11 times the Browns have played the Ravens at home. Forced to choose, we’ll go with the season-opening win in 2004. It was the first time the Browns won a season-opening game since returning in 1999 and was probably the high point of Jeff Garcia’s time as quarterback. The PD‘s game story is here.
The Prediction
It’s hard to see a way for the Browns to win this week.
We’re not buying into the national story that the team is playing for coach Eric Mangini’s job. As frustrating as the past two weeks have been, it doesn’t outweigh all the good that has gone on this season.
Baltimore is a better team and has more to play for today. But we don’t expect the Browns to just roll over; this team isn’t built or coached that way.
So we’re expecting more of the same, a tough, close game, but one where the Ravens grind out a close win, covering the spread in the meantime.
Record picking the Browns (using the point spread) this year: 2-11-1.
Red Right 88 