Red Right 88

In Cleveland, hope dies last

Archive for the category “Mel Kiper”

21 Apr 2010

The draft secret they don’t want you to know

Mel Kiper. Big Board. Fluid hips. Todd McShay. Short arms. Combine. Trade up. Trade down. Pro Day. 40-time. Character issues. Upside. Game changer. Mock drafts. Mike Mayock. War room. Boomer. Sleepers. Busts.

Millions of words have been written and spoken over the past few months about the NFL Draft. Coaches and general managers have spent hours watching video, attending the NFL Combine and college campuses for Pro Days. Self-proclaimed “experts” – like Kiper, McShay and Mayock – have published multiple, often contradictory, mock drafts because they “know” what teams should do on draft day.

But here’s the secret that the NFL and the experts don’t want us to know:

They don’t know any better than we do.

OK, that’s a bit of an exaggeration. Coaches, scouts and GMs know more than the average hardcore fan, but that extra knowledge gives them only the slightest edge on draft day.

Think about it, if you pick a fan who really follows both the NFL and college football to represent each of the 32 teams in this year’s draft, would they really be at such a disadvantage? Maybe over the course of several drafts the experts would hit on a handful of players that the fan missed, but is that really such a big advantage? Plus that slight advantage would be offset by the GM or coach who tries to outsmart everyone and drafts a player too high (see the Browns second round from last year for an example).

Just look at some of the draft picks over the years; was it really that hard to believe Jamarcus Russell would be a bust? Or that Gerard Warren, who was a dog at Florida, would still be a dog once he cashed a paycheck? Or Ryan Leaf? Todd Marinovich?

The New York Times had a great anecdote in a story this week about the growth of the draft. In 1953, Giants owner Wellington Mara had run out of players on his draft list when his turn came up in the 27th round. He happened to find a copy of The Pittsburgh Courier’s list of the nation’s best African-American players and selected someone from the list: Roosevelt Brown.

Do you honestly think Mara knew Brown would end up in the Hall of Fame?

The NFL Draft is probably 40 percent preparation and 60 percent luck. You really don’t know if a player will get injured (Courtney Brown), just never improve (Kamerion Wimbley) or just not be good enough (Mike Junkin). Or if they will turn into a three-time Super Bowl champion (Tom Brady). Or that Kent State would have more Pro Bowl players last year than Ohio State.

So remember that when you turn on the draft this weekend and someone with a giant helmet of hair is screaming about something.

Now, for what I’m hoping for out of the Browns in the first two rounds:

Best-case scenario: Eric Berry in Round 1 and Colt McCoy, either early in Round 2 or move up to pick him late in Round 1.

Solid scenario: Eric Berry in Round 1 and whoever the Browns believe is the best offensive or defensive lineman in Round 2.

Worst-care scenario: Gutting the draft to trade up for Sam Bradford.

Nightmare scenario: Trading their first-round pick and additional picks for Ben Roethlisberger.

Stay thirsty my friends.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Mel Kiper, NFL draft, Todd McShay | Leave a comment
13 Apr 2010

The Curious Case of Dez Bryant

With the NFL draft only 10 days away and the Browns holding the seventh selection in the first round with numerous holes to fill on defense, the brain trust is poised to select a defensive player – such as Eric Berry, Joe Haden or Earl Thomas.

Or are they?

The speculation wheel has now landed on the Browns taking Oklahoma State wide receiver Dez Bryant in the first round. Of course, this being Cleveland and the Browns, it’s never that simple. Bryant’s suspension last season for lying to the NCAA about a meeting he had with Deion Sanders has raised concerns among some about the dreaded “character issues.”

After the purging last year of Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and, eventually, Jamal Lewis, it would seem unlikely that the Browns would be interested in taking a chance on Bryant.

Sports Illustrated‘s Peter King had this to say in his Monday Morning Quarterback column: “I think, for those Browns fans who yearn for a franchise receiver and ask, ‘Why don’t we trade down a bit in the round and get Dez Bryant?” here’s your answer: Eric Mangini’s spent a lot of energy trying to get his locker room right, and though Bryant appears to be on the right track and could well be a terrific NFL citizen for the next 10 years, they don’t sell insurance for this kind of thing, and the Browns would rather take guys without question marks on their resumes.”

Sounds plausible, although King does come up with this nightmare scenario involving potential Browns moves on draft day: “Unless something strange happens, it’s hard to envision anything standing in the way of Sam Bradford to the Rams with the top pick on April 22. The only strange thing I see is Cleveland paying a ransom to move up to pick Bradford – like the seventh and 38th picks this year, and the Browns’ first-rounder next year, plus something else.”

Maybe it’s best if we just move on.

On the flip side, Mel Kiper has proclaimed Bryant the pick, saying “I’ve talked to people around the league about Dez Bryant, and I can tell you the notion that there are concerns about Bryant’s character is blown out of proportion. Here the Browns get the best WR in the draft, a threat they really need, and a player that, in a football environment, is a workhorse and a producer.”

With Kiper’s track record that makes it seem more likely the Browns won’t take Bryant.

While Bryant’s talent would seem to fill a need for the Browns – the team’s wide receivers are the weakest part of the team thanks to Eric Mangini’s over-rating of Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie in last year’s draft – you have to wonder. Plus, much like quarterbacks from the Big 12, you have to question if the numbers put up by the wide receivers are inflated because defenses are, to be polite, limited in their abilities.

Character matters, just like how a player performs on their Pro Day, at the combine and on the field. It’s another piece of the puzzle and another tool to help guide a team in the right direction on draft day. Even though it appears likely that the punishment did not fit the crime, I don’t see the Browns picking someone with any kind of questions about them, especially at No. 7.

Of course, Bryant will probably fall in the draft and land in Pittsburgh and torment the Browns for the next 10 years. But that’s a discussion for another day.

For a compelling argument on why the Browns should consider Bryant, check out Cleveland Frowns’ Dez Bryant’s Bad Rap.

Posted in character, Cleveland Browns, Dez Bryant, Mel Kiper, NFL draft, Peter King, Sports Illustrated | Leave a comment

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