Browns vs. Patriots – Week 9
The Browns are back home, back from the bye and back to work today against a New England that may not be as strong as it’s NFL-best 6-1 record indicates.
The Opposition
New England: 6-1
Offensive rank: 24th overall/19th passing/16th rushing
Defensive rank: 25th overall/29th passing/9th rushing
All-time record: Browns lead 12-9 (including playoffs), with a 7-4 mark at home
The line: Browns +4
What to Watch For
The Browns entered the bye week off a big defensive effort to beat the Saints. On the surface, today’s game against the Patriots, who have the best record in the NFL, appears to be just as daunting.
But looking at the numbers a little closer reveals the possibility for a far brighter outcome for the Browns.
Of the Patriots six wins, four have come against teams with losing records (Cincy, Buffalo, San Diego and Minnesota). So they haven’t been hardened by the same tough schedule the Browns have faced.
The one thing the Patriots do is score points as they lead the league with 29.3 points per game. Even without Randy Moss, the Patriots receivers will be a challenge for Browns secondary that is still finding its way.
If the Browns can’t slow New England’s offense it’s hard to see them putting enough points on the board, especially with Colt McCoy getting the start at quarterback.
But there are holes in the New England defense the Browns can exploit. The Patriots are weak on pass defense and are expected to be without starting strong safety Patrick Chung. The Browns should be able to exploit that with tight end Benjamin Watson.
Also, Peyton Hillis should be healthy after the bye week and if the Browns can get the running game going behind him, and control the ball with short passing to the tight ends, they can keep the game close. Josh Cribbs should be fully recovered from the illegal head shot he took against Pittsburgh; this could be the week he finally breaks through on special teams.
The Best Browns vs. Patriots Game I’ve Seen
The 1977 game that Don Cockroft won with a field goal in overtime – the first OT game in Browns history. This one is a little bit of a cheat because I didn’t actually see the game as, even though it was on Monday Night Football, the game was blacked out locally. But I did listen to it on the radio so that counts. Here’s the PD’s game story; love the reference to Greg Pruitt going through tear-away jerseys.
The Prediction
We can certainly see how the Browns can win this game, but a lot has to go right for it to happen.
Playing at home in his third start should be a plus for McCoy and while the Patriots will throw a lot at him defensively, it should not be anything worse than what he saw against Pittsburgh or New Orleans.
While we want to say the Browns will pull off a second consecutive surprising win, the talent gap just seems to wide and it’s not reasonable to expect two defensive touchdowns again this week.
The Browns will keep the game close, but expect the Pats to cover with a late score.
Record picking the Browns: 1-5-1
Red Right 88 