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24 Sep 2010

Week 3 Picks

After a monster Week 2 that brought us to a half-point out of first place in the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns, it’s time to keep the magic going.

This week we like:

Army (+6.5) vs. Duke

Tennessee (+3) vs. NY Giants

Dallas (+3) vs. Houston

And the money pick: Pittsburgh (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay

Here’s why:

Those of us who hoped Pittsburgh was going to struggle with their crappy back-up quarterbacks have been disappointed through the first two weeks of the season. With the way the Steelers’ defense is playing, the team could alternate Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn on every play at quarterback and still win. They held Chris Johnson, the best running back in the NFL, to 34 yards rushing last week. The Browns defense held Tampa to 10 points and 288 yards of total offense when they played in Week 1. Last week, Tampa had only 273 yards of total offense. They may not break 200 yards against Pittsburgh. This is the week the Bucs embrace their destiny as a 3-13 team.

Let’s roll.

Posted in NFL, point spreads | Leave a comment
23 Sep 2010
2 Comments

Still Struggling for Reception

By establishing Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie as the starting receivers, the Browns are relying on two second-year wide receivers.

The problem with that is there is growing evidence that a majority of wide receivers don’t adjust to the speed of the game and fully understand how to read defenses and run routes until their third season.

In his book, Take Your Eye off the Ball: How to Watch Football by Knowing Where to Look, Pat Kirwan, a senior analyst on NFL.com and former coach and front office member, highlights what a receiver must do during a play:

“It’s on the post-snap read that a receiver gets the true indicator of what the defensive back is going to do. If the cornerback lines up 7 or 8 yards off the line of scrimmage and is aligned with the receiver’s outside shoulder, it might look like off and soft to the receiver. But the receiver can’t be sure until after the snap, when he’ll see the cornerback backpedal and reveal his deep coverage principles. The receiver then immediately must decide whether he’s going to run a post, a deep curl or something in front of the deep coverage. That decision will also depend on another factor – the drop his quarterback will be taking, something the receiver must always be aware of.”

Another area young receivers struggle with is getting release off the line of scrimmage. Kirwan explains:

“Some great college receivers can’t even get off the line of scrimmage in the NFL. They never faced big, strong cornerbacks, guys who are 6’0″, 200 pounds and can bench 400 pounds. Some great college receivers never even have a chance to think about reading coverages because they’re too busy trying to get out of their stance.”

Former Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar gave still another example of the learning curve required of NFL wide receivers in an article in The Plain Dealer:

“Those passes down the sidelines that guys can’t catch and stay in bounds,” said Kosar. “If you watch them, you see that the receivers are 1-2 yards away from the sidelines as they run down field. That’s too close. They should be 5-6 yards. You want to give the quarterback about 15 feet to throw the ball between the receiver and the sidelines.”

On their training camp tour for Sirius NFL Radio, Kirwan and his on-air partner Tim Ryan talked about how the Browns receivers did not have the extra gear needed to get separation on a defensive back and give the quarterback an opportunity to drop the ball in. Without that speed, Massaquoi and Robiskie have to find other ways to get open, and that will only come with time.

The more you read about what it takes to be a successful NFL wide receiver, the more you realize what a big project this is for the team. And these examples are just the start; it’s not even taking into account how responsibilities change if you are the X, Y or Z receiver on a given play.

Of course, the Browns find themselves in this conundrum of their own doing. Because they did not have the proper people in place for the 2009 NFL Draft, they drafted two wide receivers in the same year, hoping they would be able to contribute sooner rather than later. By throwing in with Massaquoi and Robiskie, for better or worse the team has to live with the mistakes, limitations and growing pains.

There were calls during the preseason for the Browns to get a veteran player to be the No. 1 receiver. But there are a couple of problems with that. First, there are really only a handful of true No. 1 receivers in the league: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. That’s pretty much it; everyone else is a notch (or further) behind that group.

So that leaves the team looking at two options, neither of which is very appealing:

  • Sign an older receiver on the downward part of his career – T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Terrell Owens for example. But having someone like that who is not a long-term solution would just slow the development of the young receivers even more.
  • Sign a problem player like Vincent Jackson. But if the Browns didn’t want to deal with Braylon Edwards or Kellen Winslow, why would they want to take a chance on someone who is only one more incident away from a year-long suspension?

Like most things, all this takes time and patience. The first Browns fans have; the second is continually being tested, but we haven’t hit the bottom of the well just yet.

Posted in Brian Robiskie, Cleveland Browns, Mohamed Massaquoi, NFL
18 Sep 2010

Browns vs. Chiefs – Week 2

The Browns come home Sunday for Week 2 against Kansas City. After last week’s self-inflicted mess in Tampa, there’s no where to go but up for the Orange & Brown.

The Opposition

Kansas City record: 1-0
Offensive rank: 29th overall/31st passing/6th rushing
Defensive rank: 29th overall/29th passing/18th rushing
All-time record: Browns lead 10-9-2, with a 7-2-1 mark in Cleveland
Last meeting: Browns won 41-34 in 2009
The line: Browns (-3)

What to Watch For

This is going to start sounding like a broken record after a few weeks, but for the Browns to win they have to run the ball effectively and stay away from turnovers/mistakes. Last week’s game against Tampa showed that this team has virtually no margin for error this season, and if they turn the ball over or make too many mistakes they just won’t have a chance.

They where able to take care of the first part against Tampa. The Browns averaged 4.5 yards per rush, with Jerome Harrison (5.8 yards per rush) and Peyton Hillis (4.6) leading the way. That’s the plan the Browns have to follow.

The Browns also need to have a better run/pass balance. Last week they threw 38 passes to just 23 runs; although it was 28 passes/23 runs before they threw the ball on their last 10 offensive plays of the game. But, even so, any game where the Browns throw more than they run is probably going to end up as a loss.

So while game conditions can dictate what the Browns have to do offensively, they need to do a better job of not putting themselves in a position where they have to throw the ball too much. That’s just not a strength of this team and they need to get the running game going and keep it going against the Chiefs.

The other big story will be if Seneca Wallace takes over at quarterback for the injured Jake Delhomme. Former Indians manager Mike Hargrove was fond of saying that starters were starters for a reason; which means your backups are not the best players.

But Wallace should be fine, at least for one week against the Chiefs. One of the biggest hurdles a backup QB has to clear is the lack of playing time as the starting QB takes all or most of the practice reps during the week.

If this were Week 10 and Wallace had been holding a clipboard for two months, it would be a different story. But we’re close enough to training camp that Wallace hasn’t had time to get rusty, plus he’s an active member of the offense in the Flash/Cyclone package – or so we’re told, we didn’t see much of that against Tampa – so he should be OK, especially playing at home.

As for the Chiefs, the bandwagon got pretty crowded after their opening week win over San Diego. But if you look closer, quarterback Matt Cassell was 10-for-22 for 68 yards and the team really only made two big plays on offense: Jamaal Charles’ 56-yard TD run and Dexter McCluster’s 94-yard punt return. It’s not as if they laid the hammer down on the Chargers. And you can’t count on special teams scores on a weekly basis.

The Best Browns vs. Kansas City Game I’ve Ever Seen

For two teams that don’t play each other very often, the Browns and the Chiefs have had some nutty games through the years, especially in Cleveland. You had the 1995 game where the Browns returned two interceptions for touchdowns; the Dwayne Rudd helmet toss game in 2002; and the 2006 game where Derek Anderson came off the bench and led the Browns to an overtime win and, in the process, turning the next three years of Browns football into an ulcer-inducing mess.

But the best one was the 1989 game that ended in a 10-10 tie in Marty Schottenheimer’s return to Cleveland as KC’s coach. It was one of the most physical Browns games I can remember.

Here’s The Plain Dealer’s game story, as well as video in Parts 1, 2, 3 and 4.

The Prediction

The Browns know they let a game get away from them last week. They were better than Tampa and, if they hadn’t turned the ball over, would have won. The defense was sound, only giving up one big play.

The team will receive a boost as they will be making their home debut in front of a fan base who truly wants something to cheer for. T.J. Ward and Joe Haden had their first taste of regular season action last week and held their own. This week the maturation continues.

If Jake Delhomme is out, the Browns should concentrate on the run and bringing out more of the Flash/Cyclone package to help Seneca Wallace out.

The Browns take the win and build some momentum heading into a tough stretch of schedule.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Seneca Wallace | Leave a comment
17 Sep 2010

Week 2 Picks

After a disappointing opening week of 0-2-2 in the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns, it’s time to start the comeback.

This week, we like:

Penn State (-21) vs. Kent State

Green Bay (-13.5) vs. Buffalo

Houston (-3) vs. Washington

And the money pick: Atlanta (-6.5) vs. Arizona.

Here’s why:

  • As a starting quarterback in the National Football League, Derek Anderson has never won consecutive road games (I know that’s not the same as not covering, but work with me here).
  • Last week against St. Louis, he threw 15 passes to Larry Fitzgerald – 12 of which were off the mark.
  • In Bill Simmons’ weekly picks column on ESPN, a reader asked “Have Ken Whisenhunt and most of the sports media ignored the past two seasons of schizophrenic Derek Anderson games? There is only one way your season ends with Derek Anderson: with your face in your hands, weeping.”
  • Browns fans in Cleveland haven’t forgotten.
  • The Cardinals are on the road this week against Atlanta.
  • Derek Anderson is the quarterback.
  • Until he proves otherwise, he is still Derek Anderson.

Confidence is high this week.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Derek Anderson, NFL, point spreads | Leave a comment
17 Sep 2010

The Browns must do … something … apparently … I don’t know

ESPN’s John Clayton confirmed a point in his mailbag that we (and others) have been making all week:

“The key to the start of any season is not to overreact … there’s no need to panic. It’s a long season.”

Bill Simmons also agrees.

But not everyone got the message at ESPN, as AFC North beat writer James Walker has determined that the Browns are already in a “must-win” situation Sunday against Kansas City.

They must win or … what? Well, let’s find out:

“If the Cleveland Browns can lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they can lose to just about anybody. And considering their next eight opponents include only one team that didn’t have a winning record in 2009, the Browns desperately need a win Sunday …”

Really? So a team that was widely picked to only win about 3-4 games this season is in a “must-win” situation after just one week?

“The Browns, who won four straight to end the 2009 season, lost all momentum after last week’s loss to the Buccaneers.”

Did you get that? ALL MOMENTUM IS LOST. So, the Browns, no momentum. But the Bengals, Falcons & Jets, who also lost Week 1, and the Ravens & Steelers, who barely won Week 1? All momentum, baby.

“It’s no secret that Cleveland head coach Eric Mangini entered the year on the hot seat.”

Well, it might be a secret to Randy Lerner and Mike Holmgren. And they are the only ones who count here.

“The Browns weren’t expected to be a playoff team this season.”

So what’s the problem then? If they weren’t expected to be very good and they lost a game, then why hit the panic button?

The only thing the Browns “must do” on Sunday is show up and play. Nothing else. The season won’t be won or lost on Sunday, no one will lose their job, no one will be monkeying with the thermostat on Mangini’s office chair.

Oh boy, it’s going to be a long year.

***

For a more reasonable reading of the temperature of Mangini’s chair, check out this piece from Waiting for Next Year.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, hot seats, NFL, over reaction, utter nonsense | Leave a comment
14 Sep 2010
2 Comments

Sometimes, a loss is just a loss

The voices started shortly after the Browns loss to Tampa Bay:

“Same old Browns.”

“Here we go again.”

“Not Metcalf up the middle again!”

OK, maybe not that last one, but you get the point. And Bill Livingston fed into that paranoia with his column in the PD, writing that “the sunny outlook (after the loss) particularly jolts the system because it followed proof on Sunday that the leopard hasn’t changed its spots after all.”

After decades of disappointment, some fans default to a doom and gloom scenario any time the Browns lose. On some level you can’t really blame them, any Browns fan under the age of 45 has never seen a championship.

But the important thing to remember is the team doesn’t feel that way. Eric Mangini and Mike Holmgren are working hard to make sure the players don’t carry the burden of past failures.

“There’s nobody in there that I even have a sense feels that way and a lot of guys are new,” Mangini said in his Monday press conference. “A lot of guys don’t know what ‘here we go again’ means because they weren’t part of that in the past.

“As you look at the tape and even after the game, everybody understood what happened and what needs to be fixed in order to prevent it from happening again. We are talking about game-specific, not any bigger picture type thing.

“There are a lot of guys in there that are veteran guys, that are mature, that understand how to fix problems. I don’t think there’s anybody that feels that way, top to bottom.”

“I want them to start feeling like good things are going to happen instead of, you know,” Holmgren told the paper. “And they will, they will.”

That attitude is an important piece of the rebuilding plan, not just of the team but also of the fans’ mental state.

With so many new faces in town – 38 players weren’t on the roster two years ago, Mangini is in his second season and Holmgren and Tom Heckert in their first with the team – why would they feel any sense of “here we go again” after one loss?

None of them were here when the Browns lost heart breakers in the playoffs in ’85, ’86, ’87 & ’88. They weren’t here for Spurgen Wynn, Tim Counch, Ty Detmer, Trent Dilfer and Kelly Holcomb’s “teeny tiny fracture.” Likewise, this front office didn’t pass on drafting Richard Seymour and LaDanian Tomlinson, pick Chaun Thompson in the second round or sign Andre Rison to a big free-agent deal.

The “here we go again” crowd has to carry that water themselves. They have to realize that sometimes a loss is just a loss, that Jake Delhomme’s interceptions are just interceptions, not another example of how the Browns are getting ready to go “full circle on the same carousel to oblivion as before.” (Livington’s words).

Luckily, there is still a portion of the fanbase that can take a loss without crumbling. It’s certainly not easy being a Cleveland fan – if it were this site, along with ones such as Cleveland Frowns, Waiting for Next Year and ’64 & Counting, to name a few – would look and read differently. And it’s not as if downtown Cleveland is congested with victory parades.

Going into the season, you could realistically say the Browns had a chance to beat five teams: Tampa, Carolina, Buffalo, KC and Jacksonville. They were never going to beat all five, and most fans would take a 3-2 record out of this group. That’s still possible, even after losing to the Buccaneers.

And as much as some want to lay the blame for the loss at Delhomme’s feet, the receivers have to take their share of the blame as well for poor route running, particularly Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey.

Sometimes, a loss really is nothing more than a loss. All it will take is a win on Sunday against Kansas City to quiet the voices, even if it’s only for a while.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, culture change, here we go again, NFL
13 Sep 2010

Two is Better than One

The Browns are better off this season at the quarterback position – despite what happened Sunday in Tampa. And the team may be putting that depth to the test this week against Kansas City.

The Plain Dealer is reporting the Jake Delhomme is scheduled for an MRI on his right ankle after injuring it during Sunday’s game. Delhomme was visibly limping for most of the second half, and it looked like it was affecting his throwing as his right foot is his plant foot.

With Seneca Wallace on the roster, the Browns actually have one of the better starting/back-up quarterback situations in the league. If the team needs to turn to him for a week or two, things should be fine. As WFNY points out, they can use both quarterbacks without it turning into the mess from last season.

So no worries on Delhomme’s ankle; odds are the MRI is just a precautionary procedure, you know, teams do that all the time.

Of course, T.I.C.

***

Much like the Browns, we’re off to a bit of a disappointing start to the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns:

Saints (-5) vs. Minnesota – PUSH thanks to Garret Hartley. Jackass

Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Michigan – FAIL. This is the only pick we regret as we had narrowed it down to this game or Oklahoma (-7) vs. Florida State. The lesson? Notre Dame ruins everything.

Indianapolis (-2) vs. Houston – FAIL

Cleveland (+3) vs. Tampa Bay – PUSH

So 0-2-2 to start the season. Time to head back to the Red Right 88 lab and crunch some data in preparation for Week 2.

Just remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Jake Delhomme, NFL, Red Right 88 | Leave a comment
12 Sep 2010
2 Comments

A Tale of Two Halves in Tampa

What happened?

How did the Browns look so good in taking a 14-3 lead against Tampa, only to see the offense revert to 2009 levels of play calling and execution, eventually turning what looked like a sure opening-day win into a 17-14 loss to the Buccaneers?

It wasn’t even so much that they lost – this team is still rebuilding and will lose more games than it wins this season – as much as how they lost. The one thing you didn’t want to see was Jake Delhomme turn the ball over and make some of the bad decisions that haunted him last season in Carolina. He really needed to carry over his performance from the preseason, both for his confidence and to retain the confidence of the fan base.

But after leading the Browns to the early lead on a 41-yard pass to Mohamed Massaquoi and a 10-yard run by Peyton Hillis, the bad Jake Delhomme returned.

With a chance to put points on the board at the end of the first half after a Mike Adams interception, Delhomme made a horrible throw under pressure, Ronde Barber intercepted and returned the ball to the Browns 3. Tampa then scored right before halftime, trimming the Browns lead to 14-10.

The Browns moved the ball well in the first half, gaining 202 yards, but could only total 138 yards in the second half as offensive coordinator Brian Daboll fell back into his 2009 bad habits of inexplicable play calling. Daboll, supposedly “more comfortable” this year had Delhomme throw three straight passes – the third of which was intercepted – on the series following Eric Barton’s fumble recovery on the six-yard-line. Why?

After completing passes to seven different receivers in the first half, the wide receivers became an after thought about halfway through the third quarter. Was that play calling? Or another example of how this group of receivers just really isn’t all the good?

After Hillis fumbled the ball away at the Tampa 15-yard-line early in the third quarter, the offense ground to a halt. From that point on, the Browns only gained two first downs and had only one play of more than 10 yards.

The Browns also threw 38 passes to only 23 rushes for the game. The team can not win that way, especially on a day when Browns rushers were gaining 4.5 yards per run. Now obviously the game situation can dictate the play calling, but if the plan was to throw the ball that many times, it’s going to be a long year.

And going back to Barton’s fumble recovery for a minute, after falling on the ball he just laid there; why didn’t he get up and run with the ball? He wasn’t down by contact – at least not until defensive end Jason Trusnik jumped on him for no reason. It may have changed the play calling if the Browns hadn’t been starting the drive on their own 6.

OK, it was just one game. For all that went wrong, the Browns did some things well and we’re more disappointed than discouraged. They essentially lost this game through their mistakes, rather than Tampa beating them, but that shows that this team has virtually no margin for error this year; they can’t make mistakes and hope to win.

The running game was solid; the defense put pressure on Freeman, sacking him three times; and the young secondary held up well, with rookie T.J. Ward totaling 10 tackles, a forced fumble and a forced interception.

So while the team has some things to build on from this game, they also have plenty to work on as they prepare for the home opener against Kansas City.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, disappointment, Jake Delhomme, NFL, TJ Ward
12 Sep 2010

Browns vs. Bucs – Week 1

The Browns open the 2010 NFL season today against Tampa Bay with a legitimate chance to win just their second opening-game since 1999.

The Opposition

Tampa Bay (2009) record: 3-13
Offensive rank (2009): 28th overall/24th passing/23 rushing
Defensive rank (2009): 27th overall/10th passing/32 rushing

What to Watch For

Led by a running game that was 8th in the league last year and featuring Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis, the Browns should be able to run the ball and control the clock – Tampa’s defense was 27th overall last season but last in the league against the rush. We should also see the debut of the new Flash/Cyclone package with Josh Cribbs and Seneca Wallace.

Even with the right side of Cleveland’s offensive line still unstable, the combination of Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach and Alex Mack – who should be even better in his second season – should allow the Browns to control the line of scrimmage, even with Tampa rookie Gerald McCoy at one of the defensive tackle spots.

Controlling the game by keeping the ball on the ground should be in the Browns game plan throughout the season, and especially today. Limiting the number of times Jake Delhomme has to throw the ball will help:

  • Keep the Browns defense off the field as much as possible, normally a good idea but even more important as today is expected to be one of the hottest games in Browns history
  • Continue the process of rebuilding Delhomme’s confidence
  • Limit the responsibilities of the wide receivers, who as a group are still unproven and a weakness.

That’s not to say the Browns can’t turn to Delhomme if needed. Delhomme’s past success against the Buccaneers – he was 9-2 as a starter with Carolina – and knowledge of the team should come in handy at some point today. With the Browns only playing the NFC South teams once every four years, any extra edge will help.

Tampa QB Josh Freeman enters the game with a broken thumb on his non-throwing hand, but his size can still prevent problems for the Browns defense, and tight end Kellen Winslow will present a good test for the Browns revamped secondary, especially safety T.J. Ward. The Browns won’t face many tight ends better than Winslow this season, so a solid day by Ward and the secondary will pay off down the road.

The Best Browns vs. Tampa Bay Game I’ve Seen

The 1989 game in Tampa, which the Browns won 42-31. Eric Metcalf had 233 yards of total offense and abused the Tampa defense all day, scoring on a 24-yard reception and a 43-yard TD run (look at the 1:25 mark of the video). Here’s the Plain Dealer‘s game story.

The Prediction

The Browns are better than Tampa, even if only slightly. The Bucs are three-point favorites, but the game will be blacked out in the Tampa area, which negates any perceived advantage they may have. We’re taking the Browns (+3) and fully expect them to win outright.

And with Cincinnati facing New England, Pittsburgh taking on Atlanta and Baltimore facing the Jets Monday night, we could very well be looking at the first-place Browns after Week 1 concludes.

Posted in ball-control offense, Cleveland Browns, Eric Metcalf, NFL, Tampa Bay | Leave a comment
11 Sep 2010

Week 1 Picks

Here are our Week 1 picks in the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns:

Saints (-5) vs. Minnesota – PUSH thanks to Garret Hartley. Jackass

Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Michigan

Indianapolis (-2) vs. Houston

Cleveland (+3) vs. Tampa Bay.

Be back later tonight or tomorrow with a detailed look at the Browns game vs. Tampa.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, NFL | Leave a comment

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