Red Right 88

In Cleveland, hope dies last

17 Sep 2010

The Browns must do … something … apparently … I don’t know

ESPN’s John Clayton confirmed a point in his mailbag that we (and others) have been making all week:

“The key to the start of any season is not to overreact … there’s no need to panic. It’s a long season.”

Bill Simmons also agrees.

But not everyone got the message at ESPN, as AFC North beat writer James Walker has determined that the Browns are already in a “must-win” situation Sunday against Kansas City.

They must win or … what? Well, let’s find out:

“If the Cleveland Browns can lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they can lose to just about anybody. And considering their next eight opponents include only one team that didn’t have a winning record in 2009, the Browns desperately need a win Sunday …”

Really? So a team that was widely picked to only win about 3-4 games this season is in a “must-win” situation after just one week?

“The Browns, who won four straight to end the 2009 season, lost all momentum after last week’s loss to the Buccaneers.”

Did you get that? ALL MOMENTUM IS LOST. So, the Browns, no momentum. But the Bengals, Falcons & Jets, who also lost Week 1, and the Ravens & Steelers, who barely won Week 1? All momentum, baby.

“It’s no secret that Cleveland head coach Eric Mangini entered the year on the hot seat.”

Well, it might be a secret to Randy Lerner and Mike Holmgren. And they are the only ones who count here.

“The Browns weren’t expected to be a playoff team this season.”

So what’s the problem then? If they weren’t expected to be very good and they lost a game, then why hit the panic button?

The only thing the Browns “must do” on Sunday is show up and play. Nothing else. The season won’t be won or lost on Sunday, no one will lose their job, no one will be monkeying with the thermostat on Mangini’s office chair.

Oh boy, it’s going to be a long year.

***

For a more reasonable reading of the temperature of Mangini’s chair, check out this piece from Waiting for Next Year.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, hot seats, NFL, over reaction, utter nonsense | Leave a comment
15 Sep 2010
2 Comments

Hold on, I’m Adjusting

What do NFL teams do in the locker room at halftime?

In his new book, Take Your Eye off the Ball: How to Watch Football by Knowing Where to Look, Pat Kirwan, a senior analyst on NFL.com and former coach and front office member, offers a glimpse into what goes on while we’re grabbing a beer and restocking the chip bowl:

“… the booth coach typically gets down to the locker room ahead of everyone else. He sets up a quick statistical breakdown on the white board of everything that’s gone on so far.

“The goal is to give coaches enough material to use both in determining what adjustments are necessary and lecturing the players about what’s working and what isn’t. Some coordinators keep it simple – for example, they’ll decide that every play that gained 4 yards in the first half will be run again in the second half.

“Of course, most coaches aren’t going to have emptied the bucket in the first half. There should always be a few plays at various down and distances that a team didn’t show. Those will get unveiled in the second half.

“Then the coordinators write up new play-call sheets, filling new plays into each box. The key is to not rewrite the entire game plan. A coaching staff may be able to identify three new things to roll out; any more than that and they run the risk of confusing too many players.

“The team that had the best game plan going into the game – and the team that makes the best adjustments in the locker room – is usually the one that comes out on top.”

So now that we know what teams are supposed to do, the question becomes: just what are the Browns doing at halftime? Time and again, the Browns struggle in the second half; what worked in the first half rarely seems to work in the second, and the team, especially on offense, more often than not loses its way.

Last season, the Browns were outscored in the second half in nine of their 11 losses – the only exception being the two games against the Bengals. That’s probably not uncommon for a game where you lose, but consider that in their five wins, the Browns only outscored the opposition twice (KC and Oakland).

It happened again Sunday against Tampa – after a strong (for them) first half, the Browns wilted in the second. The question is why?

Maybe this is just another indicator of a team that isn’t very good. Maybe it’s an indictment of coordinators Brian Daboll and Rob Ryan. If the team plays well in the first half that would indicate the scouts did a good job creating a report on the opposition and the coaches prepared the team well during the week.

But it’s up to the coaches to adjust and put the team in a position to win in the second half of the game. And something is clearly wrong, especially on offense where it seems like Daboll is turning into Maurice Carthon. It could be that in all the talk last year about how coach Eric Mangini must go, we’ve missed the real culprit in all of this.

We know what we’ll be doing Sunday during halftime; the question is: what will the Browns be doing?

***

C’mon, Tony, didn’t we just cover this?

If Jake Delhomme is hurt it’s OK for Seneca Wallace to play on Sunday. That’s why you carry more than one quarterback on the team. This isn’t Derek Anderson vs. Brady Quinn all over. This is just the way an NFL team operates.

I wouldn’t expect the hoople heads to be able to tell the difference, but the main beat writer for the city’s biggest paper covering the most over-analyzed team in town should be able to see the difference.

Tell me how having Wallace under center will change the game plan; how will the Chiefs have to adjust; what kind of shenanigans can the Browns throw at Romeo Crennel with Wallace playing instead of Delhomme?

Just don’t give me more of the same.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, hoople heads, Jake Delhomme, Pat Kirwan, second-half adjustments
14 Sep 2010
2 Comments

Sometimes, a loss is just a loss

The voices started shortly after the Browns loss to Tampa Bay:

“Same old Browns.”

“Here we go again.”

“Not Metcalf up the middle again!”

OK, maybe not that last one, but you get the point. And Bill Livingston fed into that paranoia with his column in the PD, writing that “the sunny outlook (after the loss) particularly jolts the system because it followed proof on Sunday that the leopard hasn’t changed its spots after all.”

After decades of disappointment, some fans default to a doom and gloom scenario any time the Browns lose. On some level you can’t really blame them, any Browns fan under the age of 45 has never seen a championship.

But the important thing to remember is the team doesn’t feel that way. Eric Mangini and Mike Holmgren are working hard to make sure the players don’t carry the burden of past failures.

“There’s nobody in there that I even have a sense feels that way and a lot of guys are new,” Mangini said in his Monday press conference. “A lot of guys don’t know what ‘here we go again’ means because they weren’t part of that in the past.

“As you look at the tape and even after the game, everybody understood what happened and what needs to be fixed in order to prevent it from happening again. We are talking about game-specific, not any bigger picture type thing.

“There are a lot of guys in there that are veteran guys, that are mature, that understand how to fix problems. I don’t think there’s anybody that feels that way, top to bottom.”

“I want them to start feeling like good things are going to happen instead of, you know,” Holmgren told the paper. “And they will, they will.”

That attitude is an important piece of the rebuilding plan, not just of the team but also of the fans’ mental state.

With so many new faces in town – 38 players weren’t on the roster two years ago, Mangini is in his second season and Holmgren and Tom Heckert in their first with the team – why would they feel any sense of “here we go again” after one loss?

None of them were here when the Browns lost heart breakers in the playoffs in ’85, ’86, ’87 & ’88. They weren’t here for Spurgen Wynn, Tim Counch, Ty Detmer, Trent Dilfer and Kelly Holcomb’s “teeny tiny fracture.” Likewise, this front office didn’t pass on drafting Richard Seymour and LaDanian Tomlinson, pick Chaun Thompson in the second round or sign Andre Rison to a big free-agent deal.

The “here we go again” crowd has to carry that water themselves. They have to realize that sometimes a loss is just a loss, that Jake Delhomme’s interceptions are just interceptions, not another example of how the Browns are getting ready to go “full circle on the same carousel to oblivion as before.” (Livington’s words).

Luckily, there is still a portion of the fanbase that can take a loss without crumbling. It’s certainly not easy being a Cleveland fan – if it were this site, along with ones such as Cleveland Frowns, Waiting for Next Year and ’64 & Counting, to name a few – would look and read differently. And it’s not as if downtown Cleveland is congested with victory parades.

Going into the season, you could realistically say the Browns had a chance to beat five teams: Tampa, Carolina, Buffalo, KC and Jacksonville. They were never going to beat all five, and most fans would take a 3-2 record out of this group. That’s still possible, even after losing to the Buccaneers.

And as much as some want to lay the blame for the loss at Delhomme’s feet, the receivers have to take their share of the blame as well for poor route running, particularly Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey.

Sometimes, a loss really is nothing more than a loss. All it will take is a win on Sunday against Kansas City to quiet the voices, even if it’s only for a while.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, culture change, here we go again, NFL
13 Sep 2010

Two is Better than One

The Browns are better off this season at the quarterback position – despite what happened Sunday in Tampa. And the team may be putting that depth to the test this week against Kansas City.

The Plain Dealer is reporting the Jake Delhomme is scheduled for an MRI on his right ankle after injuring it during Sunday’s game. Delhomme was visibly limping for most of the second half, and it looked like it was affecting his throwing as his right foot is his plant foot.

With Seneca Wallace on the roster, the Browns actually have one of the better starting/back-up quarterback situations in the league. If the team needs to turn to him for a week or two, things should be fine. As WFNY points out, they can use both quarterbacks without it turning into the mess from last season.

So no worries on Delhomme’s ankle; odds are the MRI is just a precautionary procedure, you know, teams do that all the time.

Of course, T.I.C.

***

Much like the Browns, we’re off to a bit of a disappointing start to the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns:

Saints (-5) vs. Minnesota – PUSH thanks to Garret Hartley. Jackass

Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Michigan – FAIL. This is the only pick we regret as we had narrowed it down to this game or Oklahoma (-7) vs. Florida State. The lesson? Notre Dame ruins everything.

Indianapolis (-2) vs. Houston – FAIL

Cleveland (+3) vs. Tampa Bay – PUSH

So 0-2-2 to start the season. Time to head back to the Red Right 88 lab and crunch some data in preparation for Week 2.

Just remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Jake Delhomme, NFL, Red Right 88 | Leave a comment
12 Sep 2010
2 Comments

A Tale of Two Halves in Tampa

What happened?

How did the Browns look so good in taking a 14-3 lead against Tampa, only to see the offense revert to 2009 levels of play calling and execution, eventually turning what looked like a sure opening-day win into a 17-14 loss to the Buccaneers?

It wasn’t even so much that they lost – this team is still rebuilding and will lose more games than it wins this season – as much as how they lost. The one thing you didn’t want to see was Jake Delhomme turn the ball over and make some of the bad decisions that haunted him last season in Carolina. He really needed to carry over his performance from the preseason, both for his confidence and to retain the confidence of the fan base.

But after leading the Browns to the early lead on a 41-yard pass to Mohamed Massaquoi and a 10-yard run by Peyton Hillis, the bad Jake Delhomme returned.

With a chance to put points on the board at the end of the first half after a Mike Adams interception, Delhomme made a horrible throw under pressure, Ronde Barber intercepted and returned the ball to the Browns 3. Tampa then scored right before halftime, trimming the Browns lead to 14-10.

The Browns moved the ball well in the first half, gaining 202 yards, but could only total 138 yards in the second half as offensive coordinator Brian Daboll fell back into his 2009 bad habits of inexplicable play calling. Daboll, supposedly “more comfortable” this year had Delhomme throw three straight passes – the third of which was intercepted – on the series following Eric Barton’s fumble recovery on the six-yard-line. Why?

After completing passes to seven different receivers in the first half, the wide receivers became an after thought about halfway through the third quarter. Was that play calling? Or another example of how this group of receivers just really isn’t all the good?

After Hillis fumbled the ball away at the Tampa 15-yard-line early in the third quarter, the offense ground to a halt. From that point on, the Browns only gained two first downs and had only one play of more than 10 yards.

The Browns also threw 38 passes to only 23 rushes for the game. The team can not win that way, especially on a day when Browns rushers were gaining 4.5 yards per run. Now obviously the game situation can dictate the play calling, but if the plan was to throw the ball that many times, it’s going to be a long year.

And going back to Barton’s fumble recovery for a minute, after falling on the ball he just laid there; why didn’t he get up and run with the ball? He wasn’t down by contact – at least not until defensive end Jason Trusnik jumped on him for no reason. It may have changed the play calling if the Browns hadn’t been starting the drive on their own 6.

OK, it was just one game. For all that went wrong, the Browns did some things well and we’re more disappointed than discouraged. They essentially lost this game through their mistakes, rather than Tampa beating them, but that shows that this team has virtually no margin for error this year; they can’t make mistakes and hope to win.

The running game was solid; the defense put pressure on Freeman, sacking him three times; and the young secondary held up well, with rookie T.J. Ward totaling 10 tackles, a forced fumble and a forced interception.

So while the team has some things to build on from this game, they also have plenty to work on as they prepare for the home opener against Kansas City.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, disappointment, Jake Delhomme, NFL, TJ Ward
12 Sep 2010

Browns vs. Bucs – Week 1

The Browns open the 2010 NFL season today against Tampa Bay with a legitimate chance to win just their second opening-game since 1999.

The Opposition

Tampa Bay (2009) record: 3-13
Offensive rank (2009): 28th overall/24th passing/23 rushing
Defensive rank (2009): 27th overall/10th passing/32 rushing

What to Watch For

Led by a running game that was 8th in the league last year and featuring Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis, the Browns should be able to run the ball and control the clock – Tampa’s defense was 27th overall last season but last in the league against the rush. We should also see the debut of the new Flash/Cyclone package with Josh Cribbs and Seneca Wallace.

Even with the right side of Cleveland’s offensive line still unstable, the combination of Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach and Alex Mack – who should be even better in his second season – should allow the Browns to control the line of scrimmage, even with Tampa rookie Gerald McCoy at one of the defensive tackle spots.

Controlling the game by keeping the ball on the ground should be in the Browns game plan throughout the season, and especially today. Limiting the number of times Jake Delhomme has to throw the ball will help:

  • Keep the Browns defense off the field as much as possible, normally a good idea but even more important as today is expected to be one of the hottest games in Browns history
  • Continue the process of rebuilding Delhomme’s confidence
  • Limit the responsibilities of the wide receivers, who as a group are still unproven and a weakness.

That’s not to say the Browns can’t turn to Delhomme if needed. Delhomme’s past success against the Buccaneers – he was 9-2 as a starter with Carolina – and knowledge of the team should come in handy at some point today. With the Browns only playing the NFC South teams once every four years, any extra edge will help.

Tampa QB Josh Freeman enters the game with a broken thumb on his non-throwing hand, but his size can still prevent problems for the Browns defense, and tight end Kellen Winslow will present a good test for the Browns revamped secondary, especially safety T.J. Ward. The Browns won’t face many tight ends better than Winslow this season, so a solid day by Ward and the secondary will pay off down the road.

The Best Browns vs. Tampa Bay Game I’ve Seen

The 1989 game in Tampa, which the Browns won 42-31. Eric Metcalf had 233 yards of total offense and abused the Tampa defense all day, scoring on a 24-yard reception and a 43-yard TD run (look at the 1:25 mark of the video). Here’s the Plain Dealer‘s game story.

The Prediction

The Browns are better than Tampa, even if only slightly. The Bucs are three-point favorites, but the game will be blacked out in the Tampa area, which negates any perceived advantage they may have. We’re taking the Browns (+3) and fully expect them to win outright.

And with Cincinnati facing New England, Pittsburgh taking on Atlanta and Baltimore facing the Jets Monday night, we could very well be looking at the first-place Browns after Week 1 concludes.

Posted in ball-control offense, Cleveland Browns, Eric Metcalf, NFL, Tampa Bay | Leave a comment
11 Sep 2010

Week 1 Picks

Here are our Week 1 picks in the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns:

Saints (-5) vs. Minnesota – PUSH thanks to Garret Hartley. Jackass

Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Michigan

Indianapolis (-2) vs. Houston

Cleveland (+3) vs. Tampa Bay.

Be back later tonight or tomorrow with a detailed look at the Browns game vs. Tampa.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, NFL | Leave a comment
09 Sep 2010

Breaking Down the Browns Season

Sunday in Tampa, the Browns open up what is sure to be an interesting 2010 NFL season.

The team has improved in some key areas, but unfortunately some holes remain unfilled. After all, there is only so much you can do in one off-season.

In addition to the usual divisional games, this year’s schedule features a potentially brutal stretch starting in Week 3 with Baltimore and ending Week 10 vs. the Jets. It also has some interesting subplots:

  • Jake Delhomme taking on his former team, Carolina, plus facing former division opponents New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
  • Coach Eric Mangini facing two of his former teams in the Jets and New England.
  • Familiar faces in new places, including Braylon Edwards (Jets), Kellen Winslow and Sean Jones (Tampa Bay) and Romeo Crennel (Kansas City).
  • The Browns getting the Steelers in Pittsburgh for Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from suspension.

The over/under for the Browns victory total this season is 5.5, which shows why the Las Vegas oddsmakers are the dogs bollocks. That’s the perfect number for this team, and you can easily talk yourself into both sides of the over/under.

So how will the team do? Let’s take a look by breaking the schedule down into three parts.

Teams the Browns are as good as:

  • Tampa Bay
  • Carolina
  • Buffalo
  • Kansas City
  • Jacksonville

The Browns should be able to run the ball against all five, as they were all in the bottom half of the league in run defense last season, with Tampa Bay ranking last, KC (31st), Buffalo (30th), Carolina (22nd) and Jacksonville (19th). That’s a good sign for a Browns team that needs to run the ball effectively this year to have a chance to win.

Can the Browns go 5-0 against this group if they play smart, mistake-free football? Of course. Is that at all probable? No. But let’s say they go 3-2 against this group.

Teams that are better than the Browns:

  • New Orleans
  • Atlanta
  • New England
  • NY Jets
  • Miami

It’s hard to see the Browns having much success against this group. New Orleans and New England are clearly better, Atlanta’s offense may be too strong, and the Jets (first) and Miami (fourth) were two of the best rushing teams last season. Not a good sign when you were the 28th ranked rushing defense last year.

But teams can always win one game that they are not expected to win, so let’s give the Browns a 1-4 record against this group.

Teams in the AFC North:

This is where the Browns will make or break their season. Since the NFL split into four-team divisions in 2002, the Browns have gone 13-35 in the division. That includes matching 1-5 records each of the past two seasons.

The Bengals showed last year that you can be a mediocre team (4-6 outside the division) but if you take care of business inside the division (6-0) you can have a winning season. The Browns simply have to play better in the division if they are going to become a team to be taken seriously.

This year may be the perfect opportunity to do just that:

  • Many are picking the Ravens to be some kind of powerhouse this year and we’ll know early on if that’s true, as they face the Jets, Bengals, Pittsburgh and New England in the first six weeks of the season.
  • The Bengals haven’t had consecutive winning seasons in 28 years, and after last year’s fluke division title, there’s not much reason to believe they will break that streak this year.
  • Pittsburgh has an aging defense and will have Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch at starting quarterback for the first four weeks while Roethlisberger serves his suspension. We’re constantly told that quarterback is the most important position on the field, so why wouldn’t losing your starting quarterback be a problem for the Steelers? And it’s not too hard to imagine Roethlisberger being rusty for his return against the Browns.

The opportunity is there for the Browns to at least split with two of their division opponents this year, giving them a 2-4 record – at worst – in the division.

Add it all up, and the Browns finish with a minimum of six wins, covering the over bet on their season total.

The first step in the journey starts Sunday in Tampa. The Brown and Orange are almost back. Whatever happens this year, you can be sure it won’t be dull.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, dogs bollocks, intrique, NFL, over/under | Leave a comment
08 Sep 2010

Sundays in Vegas

What’s not to like about Las Vegas?

You have gambling, cheap drinks, great restaurants, gambling, nice hotels, great weather, cheap drinks, Cirque du Soleil, pools and did I mention gambling?

Probably the best part of Vegas, however, is the sports book on an NFL Sunday.

You arrive early to get a good spot for the day for the crew. Settling into a comfy chair with a cup of coffee and the morning paper, the casino around you slowly comes alive – well, more alive as Las Vegas never sleeps.

ESPN’s Gameday is on the big screens as you study the games and spreads for the day. As you pick, cross out, and then repick your 1 o’clock games and parlays, the room starts to fill up with fans wearing jerseys of their favorite teams.

After placing your bets, you grab some food and settle in for the early games as cocktail waitresses start circulating the large room. The hum and vibe rises as the multiple TV screens switch over to the early games for kick off.

Following the early games is a brief window to get up, walk around and check in with anyone in your group not at the sports book. Then it’s time to settle back in for the late afternoon games.

Once the late games finish, you have a window of time to walk outside for the first time in 10 hours, grab a quick bite of dinner and then review how the day went before placing the final bets on the Sunday night game.

It’s just a great opportunity to bond with your friends for an afternoon and meet and talk with NFL fans from across the country. Everyone should get to experience this at least once in their lifetime.

All of this is prelude to the announcement that we will be participating this year in Cleveland Frown’s 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational Reality Football Pickstravaganza. Each week we’ll be picking four games (at least one college and one NFL) in a heated competition against Frowns and an assembly of other distinguished football fans.

I’ll also post my picks for the contest here, plus a pick for the Browns each week. As there is a Thursday game this week to kick of the 2010 NFL season, my inaugural pick is:

New Orleans (-5) over the Vikings.

Now where’s that cocktail waitress?

Posted in Cleveland Frowns, gambling, Las Vegas, NFL Sundays, point spreads | Leave a comment
07 Sep 2010

From Cleveland to Villa Park

Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner is apparently a quick study.

According to a story out of England, Lerner is using his experience reshaping the Browns this off-season as a guide to fixing what ails his Premier League team, Aston Villa, which found itself without a manager when Martin O’Neill walked out five days before the season started.

Lerner’s plan to name Gerard Houllier as his new chief at Aston Villa has been inspired by his “other side across the pond,” the Cleveland Browns.

According to the report, “he was in a similar ­situation with his Cleveland side last year as the club ­suffered a difficult start. His solution was to ­appoint ­experienced Mike Holmgren as club president and ­allow him to oversee team ­operations while Eric Mangini ­continued as head coach.

“The set-up has shown signs of success and Lerner fancies testing out the policy in the Premier League.

“Villa have not yet decided on a formal title for Houllier but Lerner has been hugely impressed by his credentials and director of football seems his most likely position. He would take on a similar role to Holmgren, in that he will oversee all football ­operations including scouting, transfers and contracts.”

It’s good to see the Browns front office being acknowledged for the work they’ve done in trying to turn this team around. It’s just too bad that credit comes from an English paper, rather than from the national media here at home, who seem content to recycle the same bowl of soupy drek, like the Associated Press’ latest coach on the hot seat* story, featuring Eric Mangini:

“The Browns won their final four games, long after they had become irrelevant in the AFC standings, then Mangini persuaded Holmgren to give him another chance. The roster doesn’t look any stronger after a 5-11 season, and unless Mangini shows some versatility in demeanor and strategy, his stay in Cleveland could end with another firing.”

Yep, the team didn’t improve in any area since last season. Good analysis there.

We can already see evidence that the Holmgren/Heckert/Mangini trio is working out. It will be interesting to see how well Lerner’s plan translates across the pond.

*Why is the seat always a hot one? I was talking with a physics professor at work a few years ago and he was explaining how extreme cold and extreme heat do the exact same damage to our bodies, our brains just perceive them differently. So an extremely cold seat would be just an uncomfortable as a hot one.

***

A bit of a disturbing article in USA Today about more NFL teams are expected to face blackouts this season.

The Browns are listed as “no blackouts expected,” but I just went online and could buy tickets for the home opener against Kansas City. If the team gets off to a slow start this year, they could run into some trouble selling out games, although having a strong home schedule will help.

***

Finally, the Browns waived David Veikune, aka Chaun Thompson 2.0, today. Fellow 2009 second-round picks Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi really need to come through this year.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, hot seats, Randy Lerner | Leave a comment

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