Here are our Week 1 picks in the 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational over at Cleveland Frowns:
Saints (-5) vs. Minnesota – PUSH thanks to Garret Hartley. Jackass
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Michigan
Indianapolis (-2) vs. Houston
Cleveland (+3) vs. Tampa Bay.
Be back later tonight or tomorrow with a detailed look at the Browns game vs. Tampa.
Sunday in Tampa, the Browns open up what is sure to be an interesting 2010 NFL season.
The team has improved in some key areas, but unfortunately some holes remain unfilled. After all, there is only so much you can do in one off-season.
In addition to the usual divisional games, this year’s schedule features a potentially brutal stretch starting in Week 3 with Baltimore and ending Week 10 vs. the Jets. It also has some interesting subplots:
The over/under for the Browns victory total this season is 5.5, which shows why the Las Vegas oddsmakers are the dogs bollocks. That’s the perfect number for this team, and you can easily talk yourself into both sides of the over/under.
So how will the team do? Let’s take a look by breaking the schedule down into three parts.
Teams the Browns are as good as:
The Browns should be able to run the ball against all five, as they were all in the bottom half of the league in run defense last season, with Tampa Bay ranking last, KC (31st), Buffalo (30th), Carolina (22nd) and Jacksonville (19th). That’s a good sign for a Browns team that needs to run the ball effectively this year to have a chance to win.
Can the Browns go 5-0 against this group if they play smart, mistake-free football? Of course. Is that at all probable? No. But let’s say they go 3-2 against this group.
Teams that are better than the Browns:
It’s hard to see the Browns having much success against this group. New Orleans and New England are clearly better, Atlanta’s offense may be too strong, and the Jets (first) and Miami (fourth) were two of the best rushing teams last season. Not a good sign when you were the 28th ranked rushing defense last year.
But teams can always win one game that they are not expected to win, so let’s give the Browns a 1-4 record against this group.
Teams in the AFC North:
This is where the Browns will make or break their season. Since the NFL split into four-team divisions in 2002, the Browns have gone 13-35 in the division. That includes matching 1-5 records each of the past two seasons.
The Bengals showed last year that you can be a mediocre team (4-6 outside the division) but if you take care of business inside the division (6-0) you can have a winning season. The Browns simply have to play better in the division if they are going to become a team to be taken seriously.
This year may be the perfect opportunity to do just that:
The opportunity is there for the Browns to at least split with two of their division opponents this year, giving them a 2-4 record – at worst – in the division.
Add it all up, and the Browns finish with a minimum of six wins, covering the over bet on their season total.
The first step in the journey starts Sunday in Tampa. The Brown and Orange are almost back. Whatever happens this year, you can be sure it won’t be dull.
What’s not to like about Las Vegas?
You have gambling, cheap drinks, great restaurants, gambling, nice hotels, great weather, cheap drinks, Cirque du Soleil, pools and did I mention gambling?
Probably the best part of Vegas, however, is the sports book on an NFL Sunday.
You arrive early to get a good spot for the day for the crew. Settling into a comfy chair with a cup of coffee and the morning paper, the casino around you slowly comes alive – well, more alive as Las Vegas never sleeps.
ESPN’s Gameday is on the big screens as you study the games and spreads for the day. As you pick, cross out, and then repick your 1 o’clock games and parlays, the room starts to fill up with fans wearing jerseys of their favorite teams.
After placing your bets, you grab some food and settle in for the early games as cocktail waitresses start circulating the large room. The hum and vibe rises as the multiple TV screens switch over to the early games for kick off.
Following the early games is a brief window to get up, walk around and check in with anyone in your group not at the sports book. Then it’s time to settle back in for the late afternoon games.
Once the late games finish, you have a window of time to walk outside for the first time in 10 hours, grab a quick bite of dinner and then review how the day went before placing the final bets on the Sunday night game.
It’s just a great opportunity to bond with your friends for an afternoon and meet and talk with NFL fans from across the country. Everyone should get to experience this at least once in their lifetime.
All of this is prelude to the announcement that we will be participating this year in Cleveland Frown’s 2010 Cheddar Bay Invitational Reality Football Pickstravaganza. Each week we’ll be picking four games (at least one college and one NFL) in a heated competition against Frowns and an assembly of other distinguished football fans.
I’ll also post my picks for the contest here, plus a pick for the Browns each week. As there is a Thursday game this week to kick of the 2010 NFL season, my inaugural pick is:
New Orleans (-5) over the Vikings.
Now where’s that cocktail waitress?
Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner is apparently a quick study.
According to a story out of England, Lerner is using his experience reshaping the Browns this off-season as a guide to fixing what ails his Premier League team, Aston Villa, which found itself without a manager when Martin O’Neill walked out five days before the season started.
Lerner’s plan to name Gerard Houllier as his new chief at Aston Villa has been inspired by his “other side across the pond,” the Cleveland Browns.
According to the report, “he was in a similar situation with his Cleveland side last year as the club suffered a difficult start. His solution was to appoint experienced Mike Holmgren as club president and allow him to oversee team operations while Eric Mangini continued as head coach.
“The set-up has shown signs of success and Lerner fancies testing out the policy in the Premier League.
“Villa have not yet decided on a formal title for Houllier but Lerner has been hugely impressed by his credentials and director of football seems his most likely position. He would take on a similar role to Holmgren, in that he will oversee all football operations including scouting, transfers and contracts.”
It’s good to see the Browns front office being acknowledged for the work they’ve done in trying to turn this team around. It’s just too bad that credit comes from an English paper, rather than from the national media here at home, who seem content to recycle the same bowl of soupy drek, like the Associated Press’ latest coach on the hot seat* story, featuring Eric Mangini:
“The Browns won their final four games, long after they had become irrelevant in the AFC standings, then Mangini persuaded Holmgren to give him another chance. The roster doesn’t look any stronger after a 5-11 season, and unless Mangini shows some versatility in demeanor and strategy, his stay in Cleveland could end with another firing.”
Yep, the team didn’t improve in any area since last season. Good analysis there.
We can already see evidence that the Holmgren/Heckert/Mangini trio is working out. It will be interesting to see how well Lerner’s plan translates across the pond.
*Why is the seat always a hot one? I was talking with a physics professor at work a few years ago and he was explaining how extreme cold and extreme heat do the exact same damage to our bodies, our brains just perceive them differently. So an extremely cold seat would be just an uncomfortable as a hot one.
***
A bit of a disturbing article in USA Today about more NFL teams are expected to face blackouts this season.
The Browns are listed as “no blackouts expected,” but I just went online and could buy tickets for the home opener against Kansas City. If the team gets off to a slow start this year, they could run into some trouble selling out games, although having a strong home schedule will help.
***
Finally, the Browns waived David Veikune, aka Chaun Thompson 2.0, today. Fellow 2009 second-round picks Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi really need to come through this year.
With Saturday’s cut down of NFL rosters to 53 players came the news that the Ravens finally cut ties with former Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith.
That news was predictably followed by the cries of the hoople heads who want the Browns to sign Smith.
The big question in that scenario is why would the Browns do something like that?
Smith was exposed in the 2007 National Championship game against Florida as not being an NFL-caliber quarterback. The Gators defense, loaded with NFL talent and speed, overwhelmed Smith and the Buckeyes that night.
Since then he’s done nothing in Baltimore to change that fact. He played in 14 games for the Ravens, starting two of them. In three years he completed only 53 percent of his passes in a league where the top quarterbacks best 60 percent, for three TDs and one interception.
The NFL is a quarterback starved league, with half of the teams barely able to find one decent quarterback. Derek Anderson has a starting job in Arizona. Todd Collins – who played at Michigan so long ago they may have been wearing leather helmets – earned a roster spot in Chicago. Dennis Dixon is going to be starting Week 1 for Pittsburgh.
The jobs are there if you can play; it seems obvious that is not the case with Smith. He’s really no different than Pat White, who was cut by the Dolphins.
The Browns need players who can compete on the NFL level. It doesn’t matter where they went to school, they just need players who can be the dogs bollocks on game days. Thankfully, Mike Holmgren, Tom Heckert and Eric Mangini realize this. They aren’t going to sign someone who can’t help the team on the field.
And for those who think that Smith just “needs a chance” to prove himself, ask yourself this question: If Smith had played at any other college than Ohio State, would you still think he’d be a good fit for the Browns?
If you’re being honest, then the answer is clearly no.
The Browns made their final cuts on Saturday to get their roster down to 53 players with no major surprises.
The biggest name cut was Brandon McDonald; a minor surprise as that leaves the team with just three cornerbacks on the roster – for now. The consensus is the Browns will make some additional moves this week after they have a chance to see what players are available from other teams.
For now we know who is on the roster. Looking at this year’s roster vs. last year’s opening day roster, it’s pretty clear where the team has improved – primarily on offense – and where it still needs help:
Quarterback: Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace and Colt McCoy – even if he never plays a single down – are better than last year’s trio of Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and Brett Ratliff. Clearly better than last year.
Running back: Essentially trading Peyton Hillis for an on-his-last legs Jamal Lewis makes this a better unit. Better than last year.
Offensive line: With Alex Mack entering his second year, Eric Steinbach and Joe Thomas anchoring the left side, and the quick growth of rookie Shawn Lauvao, plus no more Rex Hadnot, takes what was already a team strength and makes it that much better. Now if they could only do something about John St. Clair. Better than last year.
Wide receiver: Still a weak spot, but we’ll go along with Braylon Edwards no longer being around as addition by subtraction. The team is just relying too much on second-year players Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie for this to be a strength. Not better than last year, but not worse.
Tight end: Ben Watson has to be an improvement over Martin Rucker, but the stone-handed Robert Royal is still on the team. Certainly not a glamor position on the squad. Not better than last year, but not worse.
Defensive line: Another unremarkable group, at least until we find out if Shaun Rogers is actually ready to play. Ahytba Rubin looked solid last year filling in for Rogers; let’s see how he does over a full season. Not better than last year, but not worse.
Linebackers: The team appears to be going for quantity over quality with 12 linebackers on the squad. Relatively young – only three of the group are over 30 – but lacking any legitimate playmakers, this looks to be a group project. But you have to love that the team kept Titus Brown, just for his name alone. Not better than last year, but not worse.
Defensive backs: After quarterback, the most improved group on the team, although very thin at cornerback. Sheldon Brown, T.J. Ward and Joe Haden are all huge upgrades over Brodney Pool, Hank Poteat and Coye Francies. Clearly better than last year.
Special teams: Reggie Hodges isn’t as good as Dave Zastudil, but he’s not bad. As long as the Browns have Josh Cribbs returning kicks, Phil Dawson and Ryan Pontbriand, they don’t have anything to worry about with this unit. Just as good as last year.
As for what the Browns will do this week, it seems likely they will make some additional rosters moves. It would make sense for them to talk with Justin Hartwig, who was cut by the Steelers, to see if they could add an experienced player to the offensive line.
Other than that, I don’t really see them going after any of the name players who were cut, for example T.J. Houshmandzadeh. For one, his production has gone down three years in a row (from 112 catches in 2007 to 79 last year) and I’m not sure adding a 32-year-old receiver is really going to make a difference in the won-loss record this year. Plus, if having him around takes time away from one of the younger receivers, is that helpful?
And whatever the Browns do, I truly believe they are smart enough to stay far, far away from Troy Smith.
So the offense improved in one vital area, while not getting weaker anywhere else. The defensive secondary should be better; hopefully that will make the linebackers and defensive line at least somewhat better.
We’ll know for sure in less than a week when the team takes the field against Tampa Bay.
When you arrive at the last preseason game of the year, as a fan and as a team you are just hoping to make it out of the game in one piece.
Unfortunately for the Browns and running back Montario Hardesty, that wasn’t the case Thursday night against the Bears.
After missing all of training camp and the first three preseason games with an injury, Hardesty finally got back on the field against the Bears only to see his season end with a torn ACL in his left knee (he tore his right ACL while playing in college at Tennessee).
“We are all very disappointed for Montario,” coach Eric Mangini said in published reports. “He’s worked extremely hard since he was drafted, he’s done everything we’ve asked him to do, and I’m sure he will be just as diligent with his rehab. It’s unfortunate but it opens the door for other guys to step up and contribute.”
You have to feel sorry for Hardesty, who worked hard to rehabilitate to try and get on the field for the Browns this year. I was watching the game when he got hurt and immediately thought “he’s done for the year” because that’s how it works here in Cleveland. You can’t just have a twisted knee, when a player goes down it has to be a season-ending injury.
The only bright spot is that, if the Browns had to lose someone to an injury, running back was the one position they could afford to have it happen. With Lawrence Vickers and a top-notch offensive line leading the way, the trio of Jerome Harrison, Peyton Hillis and James Davis, the expected trio to man the tailback position, should be very productive.
And in the long run, maybe sitting out a year and letting his body completely heal will be the best thing for Hardesty.
As for the rest of the game, there’s not much to say about backups playing against backups. Colt McCoy held his own, going 13-for-13, which is certainly better than going 0-for-13. And while there has been some criticism that he “only” passed for 131 yards, that’s 10 yards per completion and, the last time I checked, you needed 10 yards for a first down. So that’s not too bad.
I’m trying not to be worried that the Browns could not create any kind of pressure on the quarterback during the four preseason games. We’re willing to chalk that up to the Browns playing a simpler defense since the games don’t count. But still …
***
No surprise that Commissioner Roger Goodell cut Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension to four games. That means Roethlisberger will make his debut in Week 6 at home against the Browns, turning up the heat on what was already sure to be an intense game.
***
Ndamukong Suh fined $7,500 for trying to decapitate Jake Delhomme. That’s it? Be interesting to see how much the fine is when he does that to Brett Favre.
***
No they don’t. And no they didn’t.
***
Caught some of John Gruden’s over/under predictions on ESPN this week. In both the AFC North and the NFC North he believes every team will surpass the projected over in wins. I haven’t seen him talk about any other divisions, but from his tone I’m guessing that he will peg every team for the over in wins this year. He may be a good coach (debatable) and a decent announcer on Monday Night Football (debatable), but one thing he clearly is not is a math wiz.
***
Excellent start for the Three Lions with Jermain Defoe nailing a hat trick as England begins its quest to qualify for Euro 2012.
***
What everyone else is saying:
As we near the start of the 2010 NFL season, the national media is starting to roll out predictions, with two of the biggest, Sports Illustrated and ESPN, predictably picking the Browns to finish last again in the AFC North.
It’s probably not an unreasonable prediction, and it’s certainly a safe one as the Browns have pretty much owned the division’s basement since returning in 1999. Plus, Las Vegas has put the over/under on Browns wins at 5.5 this season, which is just enticing enough that you could talk yourself into going either way on that one.
Sports Illustrated takes a pretty straight-forward approach with the Browns, highlighting the offensive line as the team’s strength:
It probably takes all of one finger to count the positions on the Cleveland depth chart that inspire true envy around the league: That would be offensive line. After years of floundering around in free agency and in the draft, wasting dollars and picks, the Browns have built a pretty good wall up front on offense, which is led by All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas. Entering his fourth NFL season, Thomas is close to becoming the standard by which offensive left tackles are measured these days.
But the Browns also have a talented young center in Alex Mack and a valuable veteran left guard in Eric Steinbach, putting them light years ahead of some of the lines Cleveland has run out there since returning to the league in 1999. While the Browns quarterbacking was truly horrendous last season, the team’s rushing game really kicked into high gear in the season’s final month, running for 900 yards during the course of Cleveland’s season-ending four-game winning streak. Running back Jerome Harrison’s heroics notwithstanding, the Browns offensive line paved the way for that eye-popping production.
It’s nice that SI at least acknowledges the improvement in the passing game:
(Jake) Delhomme has looked sharp this preseason, but it’s hard to forget he did throw 18 interceptions in his 11 games in Carolina last season, and that’s one more than (Brady) Quinn and (Derek) Anderson combined for all year. Mere competency will go a long way in Cleveland, and if Delhomme can afford to rely upon the Browns strong running game and not put his defense into a hole, progress will inevitably be made through the air.
SI takes the bait and predicts a 6-10 finish for the Browns.
ESPN has pretty much the same conclusion, but they brought up one important point:
Cleveland was the only AFC North team all three entities agreed on. From everything I’ve seen, the Browns are too short on talent to be a contender. I think the Browns are scrappy and have potential to play smart football, especially if Jake Delhomme has a bounce-back season at quarterback. But I’d be surprised if Cleveland wins more than a game or two in the AFC North this season. If you can’t win in the division, you probably won’t have a successful season.
The Bengals proved last year that you can be a mediocre team (4-6 outside the division) and still make the playoffs if you can play well inside your division (6-0 last year).
Playing within the division has absolutely killed the Browns over the years. Since 2002, the team is 13-35 vs. Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati, and has never been better than 3-3 in the division.
Until the Browns can reverse that trend, it’s going to be hard to see them accomplishing much on the field, no matter how much they seem to be improved.
Since the Browns returned in 1999, the team’s passing leaders have been:
1999: Tim Couch, 2,447 yards, 15 TDs, 73.2 QB rating
2000: Couch, 1,483 yards, 7 TDs, 77.3 QB rating
2001: Couch, 3,040 yards, 17 TDs, 73.1 QB rating
2002: Couch, 2,842 yards, 18 TDs, 76.8 QB rating
2003: Kelly Holcomb 1,797 yards, 10 TDs, 74.6 QB rating
2004: Jeff Garcia, 1,731 yards, 10 TDs, 76.7 QB rating
2005: Trent Dilfer, 2,321 yards, 11 TDs, 76.9
2006: Charlie Frye, 2,454 yards, 10 TDs, 72 QB rating
2007: Derek Anderson, 3,787 yards, 29 TDs, 82.5 QB rating
2008: Derek Anderson, 1,615 yards, 9 TDs, 66.4 QB rating
2009: Brady Quinn, 1,339 yards, 8 TDs, 67.2 QB rating
In his seven years as the QB in Carolina, Jake Delhomme’s average 16-game season was good enough for 3,386 passing yards, 21 TDs and a QB rating of 84.9. And that includes his horrific year last season.
This tells us two things:
When you look back at the last 11 years of Browns football, you realize just how bad the quarterback play has been.
The team is going to be in good hands with Delhomme.
Red Right 88 