Now that the Indians have finalized their roster, we know what the starting rotation will look like heading into the 2011 season.
But can the five-man rotation of Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot pitch the Tribe back to a winning season?
Let’s use math and history to try and find an answer.
For arguments sake, lets assume the rotation will make it through the season intact (we know, not likely). Based on their career numbers, this is what we could expect:
- Carmona has won 46 games in 118 career starts. If he made 33 starts this season, he would end up with 13 wins.
- Carrasco would win 5.5 games in his 33 starts (based on two wins in 12 career starts)
- Masterson would finish with 9.5 wins from 32 starts (16 wins in 54 career starts)
- Tomlin would have a breakout season with 16 wins in 32 starts (six wins in 12 career starts)
- Talbot would notch 11 wins in 32 starts (10 career wins in 29 starts)
Add that up and the starters would combine for 55 wins on the season.
The Indians have had eight winning seasons since 1995. In those seasons, the starters, on average, have earned 63 percent of the team’s wins in a given season.
So, if this year’s rotation puts up 55 wins and that represents 63 percent of the Tribe’s win total, the Indians will win 87 games this year.
See how simple that was?
OK, we know there are some flaws in all this. It’s highly unlikely the Indians will only use five starters this year; and the sample size for everyone but Carmona is pretty small.
But other than Tomlin winning 16 games, are the win totals for the rest of the staff that far off? Is it too much to think Masterson will win 10 games? Maybe you take a couple of wins off Talbot’s total, but it wouldn’t be unrealistic to add a couple to Carrasco’s win column. Or Carmona’s.
Who knows? Give these guys half a chance and maybe they will surprise us all.
Pete Thamel at The New York Times looks at one of the reasons why Jared Sullinger is coming back for his sophomore year at Ohio State:
Satch Sullinger, the father of the Ohio State star Jared Sullinger, is a human fortune cookie. A retired high school and college coach in Ohio, the elder Sullinger speaks in coaching nuggets.
One of his favorite sayings sums up his son’s decision to return to Ohio State for his sophomore year, despite being projected as a top-five pick in the N.B.A. draft.
“Yesterday is history,” Satch likes to say. “Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That’s why they call it the present.”
Satch Sullinger said his son had two goals. The first was to win a national title, which Ohio State was favored to do this season, coming into the N.C.A.A. tournament as the No. 1 overall seed.
“That’s exactly why he’s coming back,” Satch said. “He’s coming back because his goal is to win a national championship. He’s won A.A.U. and high school championships, and he wants to win a national championship.”
We all know how passionate we can be as Cleveland fans, but we’ve never seen anything like this in Cleveland:
Fans of the Colombian soccer team Cucuta Deportivo brought in a coffin to General Santander Stadium for a match Sunday between Deportivo and Envigado.
The story, which comes from Colombia Reports via Dirty Tackle, says 17-year-old hardcore fan Cristofer Alexander Jacome was murdered while playing soccer in his local neighborhood. Jacome was part of the fan group Barra del Indio that’s supposedly known for its crazy antics at soccer matches.
That beats the old keg in the dog house trick they used to pull at the old Stadium. (h/t Larry Brown Sports)
Former Great Plains vocalist Ron House, backed by Columbus’ own Moviola, with Fire Tressel, Not Teachers.
Ugh, that’s pretty crappy. (h/t UniWatch)
Finally, happy birthday to … us!
It was a year ago today we started this blog. A lot has changed in Cleveland sports over the past year, we can’t wait to see what the next year brings.