Red Right 88

In Cleveland, hope dies last

23 Apr 2010

A healthy appetite for debate

“I love argument, I love debate. I don’t expect anyone just to sit there and agree with me, that’s not their job.” – Margaret Thatcher

There has been some speculation – primarily from Sports Illustrated‘s Peter King and Yahoo Sports‘ Charles Robinson – that there was some debate within the Browns draft room over who to pick in the first round – Joe Haden or Kyle Wilson.

Browns fans everywhere should be thrilled that the team finally has a functional, knowledgeable front office in place that can rationally talk about the value of two players and reach a consensus.

We’ve been down the dictator road before with Butch Davis, who wanted his voice to be the only one in the room, which is how the Browns ended up with Gerrard Warren.

That doesn’t work.

Having Mike Holmgren working as, in his words “the tiebreaker,” is what this team needs. There is absolutely no downside if Eric Mangini wants one player, lays out his reasons why, and then Tom Heckert, who may want another player, does the same and then Holmgren makes the final decision.

Why would anyone not want the team to function this way?

As for the second-round pick, I have to admit I don’t really know anything about T.J. Ward. But the Browns need help at safety and he plays safety.

However, I also found that “Ward’s junior year, 2008, was his only full season as a starter. He was a backup as a freshman and sophomore, and his senior season was cut short by injury. In fact, Ward has a long history of knee and ankle injuries, which is why it’s a bit of a surprise that he went as high as he did.”

But according to Oregon Live: “Former Oregon safety T.J. Ward hits like a freight train and has enough speed and range to play either safety position in the NFL.

“The knock on him is his durability. Given how fearless he is, injuries are certain to come and they did during his career at Oregon.

“Ward’s stock has fluctuated during the draft process. One NFL scout said he saw Ward as a late-round pick. But Scout Inc. has Ward going in the third round to Dallas. NFLDraftScout.com has him rated as the No. 2 strong safety in the draft.”

Hmm, hits like a freight train sounds good – can we test that out on Hines Ward? Injuries are certain to come sounds bad. Let’s overlook that for now.

The only concern I have with the Browns passing on Colt McCoy or Jimmy Clausen in this spot is the overwhelming evidence that quarterbacks have a higher success rate if they can sit their first year or two in the league. With Delhomme set to start this season, getting a QB this year rather than next year and starting the learning process may have been a good idea.

We’ll see. There’s still the possibility the Browns can move up out of the third round to grab a QB.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, debate, functional, knowledgeable, NFL draft | Leave a comment
23 Apr 2010

The plan is coming together

It’s all starting to come together for the Browns during this weekend’s draft.

When was the last time we could say that?

Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert resisted the voices and did not trade up for Sam Bradford, despite the insanity of a rumor floated out by ESPN’s Michael Smith that the Browns were offering to give up most of their picks in this year’s draft and picks next year to St. Louis to move up.

It’s so comforting to finally have credible, clear-thinking people in charge of the Browns.

And when Eric Berry went off the board the Browns stuck to their plan to fix the defensive secondary and selected Joe Haden.

Things only got better from there as not only did no one bite on drafting Colt McCoy (not a total surprise), but Jimmy Clausen also fell into the second round. And unless a team trades up in front of the Browns, this sets the Browns up perfectly to grab the QB of the future in the second round if they want to. Or they can fill one of multiple holes elsewhere on the team because, let’s be real here, when you rank 31st on defense and 32nd on offense you have a lot of holes to fill.

The last time the Browns drafted someone named Joe in the first round, it worked out pretty well. Optimism remains high that this Joe will be just as solid of a pick.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Joe Haden, NFL draft, optimism | Leave a comment
23 Apr 2010
1 Comment

They got one. No more.

OK, the Cavs dropped Game 3 of their series with the Bulls. We knew this was bound to happen; the odds of the Cavs sweeping another first-round playoff series were slim. After winning seven consecutive opening-round games, a slip-up was going to happen.

And while it wasn’t the only problem, poor free-throw shooting killed the team. The Cavs missed 11 free throws in a two-point loss. Which, again, should be no surprise.

There’s little reason to fear that the Cavs will lose this series, let alone another game. The bigger concern is the player rotation, or lack of rotation. All season long the team succeeded by being versatile: playing big against the Lakers and Boston, playing athletic against Orlando and Atlanta, playing small against Phoenix and Dallas. It was a real strength of the team.

That now seems to be forgotten. Even though Shaq and Z continue to struggle with the Bulls quicker frontcourt players, JJ Hickson can’t get off the bench. He’s played three minutes so far in the series. Why not give some of Z’s minutes to Hickson in Game 4, especially if Z and Shaq continue to struggle? In Game 3 the duo combined for six points and five rebounds. In Game 2 it was 11 points and 10 rebounds.

It’s not like if Hickson plays against the Bulls the Cavs can’t go back to Z in the next round if the matchups favor him. Wasn’t that the whole point of building a flexible roster?

Game 3 is Sunday afternoon.

14 wins to go.

Posted in Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA playoffs
21 Apr 2010

The draft secret they don’t want you to know

Mel Kiper. Big Board. Fluid hips. Todd McShay. Short arms. Combine. Trade up. Trade down. Pro Day. 40-time. Character issues. Upside. Game changer. Mock drafts. Mike Mayock. War room. Boomer. Sleepers. Busts.

Millions of words have been written and spoken over the past few months about the NFL Draft. Coaches and general managers have spent hours watching video, attending the NFL Combine and college campuses for Pro Days. Self-proclaimed “experts” – like Kiper, McShay and Mayock – have published multiple, often contradictory, mock drafts because they “know” what teams should do on draft day.

But here’s the secret that the NFL and the experts don’t want us to know:

They don’t know any better than we do.

OK, that’s a bit of an exaggeration. Coaches, scouts and GMs know more than the average hardcore fan, but that extra knowledge gives them only the slightest edge on draft day.

Think about it, if you pick a fan who really follows both the NFL and college football to represent each of the 32 teams in this year’s draft, would they really be at such a disadvantage? Maybe over the course of several drafts the experts would hit on a handful of players that the fan missed, but is that really such a big advantage? Plus that slight advantage would be offset by the GM or coach who tries to outsmart everyone and drafts a player too high (see the Browns second round from last year for an example).

Just look at some of the draft picks over the years; was it really that hard to believe Jamarcus Russell would be a bust? Or that Gerard Warren, who was a dog at Florida, would still be a dog once he cashed a paycheck? Or Ryan Leaf? Todd Marinovich?

The New York Times had a great anecdote in a story this week about the growth of the draft. In 1953, Giants owner Wellington Mara had run out of players on his draft list when his turn came up in the 27th round. He happened to find a copy of The Pittsburgh Courier’s list of the nation’s best African-American players and selected someone from the list: Roosevelt Brown.

Do you honestly think Mara knew Brown would end up in the Hall of Fame?

The NFL Draft is probably 40 percent preparation and 60 percent luck. You really don’t know if a player will get injured (Courtney Brown), just never improve (Kamerion Wimbley) or just not be good enough (Mike Junkin). Or if they will turn into a three-time Super Bowl champion (Tom Brady). Or that Kent State would have more Pro Bowl players last year than Ohio State.

So remember that when you turn on the draft this weekend and someone with a giant helmet of hair is screaming about something.

Now, for what I’m hoping for out of the Browns in the first two rounds:

Best-case scenario: Eric Berry in Round 1 and Colt McCoy, either early in Round 2 or move up to pick him late in Round 1.

Solid scenario: Eric Berry in Round 1 and whoever the Browns believe is the best offensive or defensive lineman in Round 2.

Worst-care scenario: Gutting the draft to trade up for Sam Bradford.

Nightmare scenario: Trading their first-round pick and additional picks for Ben Roethlisberger.

Stay thirsty my friends.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Mel Kiper, NFL draft, Todd McShay | Leave a comment
20 Apr 2010

Save the Date

With the NFL releasing the 2010 schedule last night, there are several dates Browns fans should circle on the calendar.

For the first time since they returned in 1999, the Browns will open on the road, taking on Tampa Bay. That’s probably a good thing as the Browns are 1-10 in season openers since 1999.

Also the Browns are not scheduled for Monday night, Sunday night or Thursday night. Not sure how that happened since I’m pretty sure the NFL bylaws require them to play Pittsburgh at home on Thursday night.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, the Browns travel there in Week 6 and host the Steelers in the season finale. In fact, the last three games are all division games, with the Browns traveling to Cincinnati in Week 15 before closing the season at home vs. Baltimore and then Pittsburgh.

The other big dates are the Jets at home on Nov. 14, which should be the most intense regular-season game since Marty returned with KC – still the most physical game I’ve seen the Browns take part in.

Carolina visits Nov. 28 in the Jake Delhomme revenge game.

The Browns’ strength of schedule is 10th. And for some reason they face a brutal stretch in late November with four road games over a five-week span.

I’m ready for some football.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, football, NFL schedule | Leave a comment
20 Apr 2010

With their first pick in the NFL draft …

the Browns select … Colt McCoy?

According to Pro-Football-Reference’s new player metric rating, quarterback is the primary position the Browns should fill Thursday night.

Their analysis, summarized in a series of articles at ESPN, finds that “almost all of the talent in certain positions has typically been stored in the first round, whereas the depth in other positions is more equally dispersed. Two positions that teams would be wise to position themselves early are quarterbacks and linebackers, while two positions where the talent pool is typically deep enough that it rewards patience are defensive end and running back.”

Pro-Football-Reference found that the talent level of quarterbacks drops severely after the first round and, while Drew Brees and Tom Brady are often cited as QBs who succeeded despite being picked after the first round, the website found that, of the past 10 NFL drafts, David Garrard is the third-best QB selected outside the first round.

The lesson? If you want a quarterback, get one on the first day of the draft.

With Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace not being long-term answers at the position, it would seem that the Browns would be targeting a quarterback of the future.

The top three QB prospects are Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy. I’m assuming the Browns won’t go crazy and trade up for Bradford, so let’s take him off the board. So how to pick between Clausen and McCoy?

ESPN went deeper into what helps make a quarterback successful. They found that, the longer a quarterback sits before making his first start, the better the odds are that they will succeed. In fact, completion percentage, TD/INT ratio and yards per attempt all rise over the course of his career the longer a QB sits to begin it.

Drafted QBs who didn’t get to start until their third or even fourth years have TD/INT rates nearly 50 percent better, and complete passes at a rate a full five percent better than rookie starters. But that’s not just in the first season; that’s for their careers.

Examples of successful quarterbacks who sat include Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t start until his fourth year; Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington and Marc Bulger didn’t start until their third year; and Chris Palmer and Brees sat until their second year.

ESPN cited the mixed results of recent draft picks who started early, saying “Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco seem to be ready to help the reputations of top picks who start as rookies – a realm dotted with failures like Tim Couch and Joey Harrington, or recent cases like David Carr and Alex Smith. Unfortunately, Stafford and Sanchez combined for 25 TDs and 40 INTs as rookies. And based on the data, only confidence in their talent should assure fans they figure to get much better. (Sanchez, for one, built those numbers behind one of the game’s best offensive lines.)

With Delhomme set to start at least this year, the Browns can draft a quarterback and let him incubate the appropriate amount of time. So Clausen and McCoy are still equal.

Then, for what it’s worth, there’s Bill Parcells four rules for drafting a quarterback:

1. Be a three-year starter

2. Post at least 23 wins

3. Be a senior

4. Be a college graudate

This is where McCoy stands out. He was a four-year starter who finished with 45 wins; don’t know if he graduated or not, but he hits on at least three of the four criteria.

McCoy was on 790 The Zone, an Atlanta radio station, this morning and had this to say about Cleveland: “I just left the Browns and Coach Holmgren kind of compared me to Steve Young and Joe Montana and just said that I have the intangibles that they had at this point in their career when they were coming out of college. (Holmgren) expects me to be just like they were. I think that is a good comparison and obviously people would compare me to Drew Brees a little bit. I think because of our height.

“I know how hard I prepare and nobody is going to work harder than me or be more prepared going into a game than I am, and I expect to do exactly what I did in college, and that is come in there and win games. I know that it is going to be different. I know that it is going to be a transition, but I am going to work my tail off and earn the respect of my teammates and coaches and go to work.”

McCoy was asked if he could hand-pick the team he’ll be playing for next year, who it would be. McCoy didn’t directly answer the question, but he did praise Cleveland quite a bit.

“I absolutely enjoyed Coach Holmgren. He is a class act, and I could definitely see myself playing in their organization. I think that it would be a tremendous opportunity and they have a lot of good things going for them and Coach (Eric) Mangini and their staff have been awesome. So, you never know.”

Add it all up and one can see a scenario where the Browns trade down and take McCoy. And while they have other holes to fill – it would be hard to see them pass on Eric Berry if he’s available at No. 7 – it may be unwise for them to ignore history.

Colt’s right, you never know.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
20 Apr 2010

Dropping a deuce on Chicago

The Cavs took the Bulls best shot in Game 2 Monday night and, for the Bulls, it wasn’t good enough, which means the series is effectively over.

The Bulls scored 21 second-chance points, scored 56 points in the paint – the third-highest total against the Cavs this year – committed just four turnovers and took 22 more shots than the Cavs. Shaq only played 15 minutes because of foul trouble, Z was mostly non-existent and Anderson Varejao struggled.

And the Cavs still beat them by 10.

Then there was the brilliant idea by some of the Bulls to dare LeBron James to shoot from the outside.

“They were telling me I can’t make jump shots,” James said. “They asked me to shoot a jumper so I did that. Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.”

James finished with 40 points on 16-of-23 shooting, so that may not have been the best strategy on the Bulls part.

Game 3 is Thursday night in Chicago.

14 more wins to go.

Posted in Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, NBA playoffs | Leave a comment
18 Apr 2010

Play Today, Win Today

There’s a tradition in tournament play to not talk about the next step until you’ve climbed the one in front of you. I’m sure going to the state finals is beyond your wildest dreams, so let’s just keep it right there. – Coach Norman Dale

Pretty in the first quarter, gritty the rest of the way, the Cavs took the first step on what hopefully will be a long playoff road by beating the Bulls in Game 1 of their first-round series.

Like several of their games this year, the Cavs took a big early lead (22 points at one time, helped by seven turnovers and several missed shots by Chicago in the first quarter), let most of it dwindle before putting the game away with some clutch shooting down the stretch – after a Brad Miller basket cut the lead to seven with 2:29 to play, LeBron James’ traditional three-pointer and Mo Williams 3-point shot put the Cavs back up by 13 and sealed the win.

The Bulls actually outscored the Cavs over the final three quarters of the game, something that hopefully won’t give them momentum heading into Monday’s Game 2.

And while Derek Rose had 28 points and 10 assists for Chicago, Williams offset him nicely with 19 points and 10 assists. If Williams can stay close to Rose’s output for this series, what little chance the Bulls have to win the series evaporates quickly.

The Cavs were right at their season average in free-throw shooting as they hit 70 percent (12-of-17) for the game. Something to keep an eye on as the series progresses, plus the Cavs were weak from 3-point territory, hitting on six of 23 attempts.

Any rust the Cavs may have had due to taking time off or injuries was a non-issue, as Shaq looked ready as he and LeBron combined for 36 points and seven blocks.

Plus Shaq irritated the crap out of Joakim Noah. Always fun.

Game 2 comes Monday night.

One down, 15 more to go.

Posted in Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, NBA playoffs, Shaq | Leave a comment
16 Apr 2010

Take one, they’re free

With the Cavs opening the playoffs Saturday against Chicago, the fear is palpable that the team’s poor free-throw shooting may turn out to be its Achilles heel. The Cavs finished 30th (that’s last if you are scoring at home) in the NBA at .720 percent this year.

The PD’s Bill Livingston laid out a sound argument in a column this week that a team can win an NBA title while shooting poorly from the free-throw line. The good folks at Waiting for Next Year did a lengthy statistical breakdown last month of the Cavs’ woes.

But just because a team can win while shooting poorly on free shows, that doesn’t mean the team should take a cavalier approach at the line. This is still Cleveland after all.

In fact, poor free-throw shooting has played a major role in Cavaliers playoff history.

In the Miracle of Richfield season, the series with Washington was 2-2 as the teams returned to the court for Game 5. With the Bullets up by one with seven seconds left in the game, Washington’s Elvin Hayes went to the line with a chance to put the Bullets up by three, which would have closed out the game as there was no 3-point shot at the time. Hayes bricked both, allowing the Cavs to steal a win on Jim Cleamons’ last-second shot.

If Hayes had made those shots, the Bullets probably would have closed out the series back home in Game 6.

In 1985, poor free-throw shooting absolutely killed the Cavs in their upset bid against the 63-win Celtics. The Cavs lost the series 3-1, but the three losses were by three points (126-123), two points (108-106) and two points (117-115) and in the series the Cavs missed 26 free throws.

And, in 2006, Gilbert Arenas missed two free throws with 15 seconds left and the Cavs Damon Jones’ subsequent game-winning jumper led to the Wizards’ season-ending 114-113 loss in overtime.

Still not worried?

With four of the Cavs top five big men shooting below 70 percent from the line – J.J. Hickson (.681), Anderson Varejao (.663), Antawn Jamison (.506) and Shaq (.496) – it’s going to be interesting to see how Mike Browns works his rotation late in a close game.

Posted in Cleveland Cavaliers, free throws | Leave a comment
15 Apr 2010

Due Diligence (Updated)

Associated Press is reporting the following:

Cleveland Browns general manager Tom Heckert says the team has had talks with the St. Louis Rams about moving up in the NFL draft to take quarterback Sam Bradford with the No. 1 overall pick.

Heckert on Thursday said the Browns, who have the No. 7 pick, have been “‘playing a little phone tag” but said they have talked with the Rams, who are expected to select the Oklahoma quarterback.

Browns president Mike Holmgren warned that dealing for Bradford could be difficult, saying “you’d have to mortgage the ranch. In the real world, we’re probably going to go in a different direction.”

Currently owning 10 picks, Cleveland could put together an attractive package of picks to move up.

Bradford did not visit the Browns, but the team attended his pro day workout.

The Browns are just covering their bases, getting the lay of the land, doing their due diligence.

Please let it be that.

In Friday’s Beacon Journal, Holmgren had this to say:

”So the fans don’t get . . . I don’t want everyone to . . . then pull the rug out from everybody in our first draft,” Holmgren said Thursday. ”Look it, he’s a coveted young man. To be able to go up and change somebody’s mind ahead of us, you’d have to mortgage the ranch. You remember when coach Ditka did that with his picks and then he went and played golf.

”Absolutely, we love the player, as do a lot of people. But in the real world, we’re probably going to go in a different direction there.”

So that clears that up.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, due diligence, NFL draft, Sam Bradford | Leave a comment

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