About that second round draft pick
While fans are still understandably divided over whether the Browns should select Alabama running back Trent Richardson, Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon or LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, most have come to the conclusion that the fourth selection in the first round is too high to select quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden.
But many are starting to buy into the scenario where the Browns select Weeden with the team’s first selection in the second round (No. 37). Draft “expert” Mel Kiper has decided that adding Weeden in the second round would help the Browns earn an “A” grade from him for the draft. (h/t WFNY)
The thing is … selecting Weeden (or any quarterback) in the second round might be a huge mistake.
The last time a team drafted a franchise quarterback in the second round was 2001, when the Chargers selected Drew Brees.
Since then, the following quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Clausen, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson.
Still feeling good about Weedon?
But wait! It gets better! If you go back to Brett Favre, who was taken in the second round by the Falcons in 1991, you can add these quarterbacks to the list: Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Shaun King, Charlie Batch, Jake Plummer, Tony Banks, Todd Collins, Kordell Stewart, Matt Blundin and Tony Sacca.
Are you ready to take on the Steelers and the Ravens twice a year with any of those guys?
More importantly, are you ready to gamble that a team from Cleveland can beat those historical odds and find a quarterback in the second round?
since 84, here are the qbs drafted in 2nd round who passed for more than 20,000:
not retired yet:
in the 3rd round you have:
with these not retired:
net net, if your point is that players drafted later are less successful, i agree. but i dont find this a great reason to take a qb in the 1st round. after all:
1st round qb busts
sorry, know it begs the question: how many 1st qb over 20,000 yds:
Troy Aikman HOF
I'm not saying they should take Weeden or Tannehill in the first round. It's just interesting that a lot of people seem to think its OK to take Weeden in the second round because he has more “value” there than in the first.
It's scary to look at that list of second-round QBs and realize just how much the talent drop off is after the top of the first round.
All along what I've only wanted the Browns to make a switch at QB if it was for someone who will take them to the 10- to 12-win mark year after year. McCoy is very likely not that guy, but there's no value in bringing in someone like Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, etc., because they are not going to hit that elite level either.
It hurts to think about it, but the best course may be to live with McCoy for another year and see what happens next year in free agency or the draft. I hate saying that, but I don't know where the option is if you don't go with McCoy this year.
you know titus, i'll be ok if they give mccoy another year and ill be ok if we pick up weeden (or tannehill or cousins or osweiler). if HH take weeden/tannehill with pick 1b, ill have to trust that they know what they're doing. i reserve the right to carp if they take any of those at 4.
the whole thing with qbs is first a crapshoot and second dependent on peripheral factors of line, playmakers, and coaching. while i dont think colt is the long term answer at qb, there's no denying that he went from looking promising in his first four games to looking utterly clueless prior to his injury. the decline in 2010 seemed to map to yates' injury (thus a right side line of lauvao/stclair). the cluelessness last year must accrue to shurmur (as well as the science experiment of pinkston/lauvao/pashos).
given all those extraneous factors, i find the 'you must take a franchise qb in first round' premise generally too simplistic. i say let's plug our holes with talent at good value. who knows, maybe we'll find a diamond at qb in the later rounds. and there are quite a few potential diamonds who will be there from round 3 on — i do like cousins, osweiler and also bj coleman and even the qb from yale, patrick witt.
if it were me, id take weeden with our 2nd round pick. i would not do unnatural acts to trade up for him. i *would* attempt to move up if blackmon should slide past 10, keeping those two together would be pretty awesome. if there was any way to get richardson, blackmon, and weeden.. well that seems like a homerun.